LAND SUITABILITY AND DYNAMIC SYSTEM MODELLING TO DEFINE PRIORITY AREAS OF SOYBEAN PLANTATION IN PADDY FIELDS IN KARAWANG, WEST JAVA

Widiatmaka Widiatmaka, Wiwin Ambarwulan, Irman Firmansyah, Khursatul Munibah, Paulus B.K. Santoso, Sudarsono Sudarsono

Abstract


One of the agricultural public commodities in Indonesia which still cannot fulfill its domestic consumption needs is soybean. The objectives of the research, which was conducted in Karawang Regency, West Java, Indonesia, were to: (i) identify the suitable area for soybean plantations in paddy fields, (ii)  assess the development of soybeans in land use and socio-economic context, and (iii) plan the spatially soybean plantation. A soil survey and land evaluation for soybean was completed. IKONOS imagery was applied to delineate paddy fields while a dynamic system modelling was developed using Powersim 8.0 software. The results of the research showed that the suitability class for soybean plantation in the paddy fields of Karawang Regency ranges from unsuitable (N) to suitable (S2), with limiting factors being temperature, fertility, nutrients retention, slope, erosion, rooting media and toxicity. Very limited arable land  has been used so far for soybeans plantations due to low economic returns. The model predicts that, should the development of soybean continues in its business as usual path, a deficit of soybean will occur in 2030. The model provides alternative scenarios to reduce the deficit. Prioritization was done spatially using the suitable land gradually, corresponding to the government budget availability.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Adisarwanto, T. 2010. Soybean production enhancement strategies as the efforts to meet the domestic needs and reducing imports. Pengembangan Inovasi Pertanian, 3(4): 319-331 (in Indonesian).

Amaliyah, R. 2013. Importing soybeans: should be continued to proceed? (effect of trade liberalization on Indonesian soybean). Global & Policy, 1 (1): 19-30 (in Indonesian).

Anonymous. 2011. World food security-everyone now wants arable land. Appropriate Technology, 38 (1): 53-56.

Bach, N. L., K. Saeed. 1992. Food self-sufficiency in Vietnam: a search for a viable solution. System Dynamics Review, 8(2): 129–148.

Badan Litbang Pertanian. 2012. Soybean expansion in the forest as a source of seed. Sinar Tani. XLII (3470): 1-9 (in Indonesian).

Badan Pusat Statistik (Indonesian Bureau of Statistic). 1993 to 2013. Statistik Tanaman Pangan. http://www.bps.go.id/tnmn_pgn.php?kat=3&id_subyek=53&notab=0. Retrieved January to August 2014.

Brown, L.R. 2008. Why ethanol production will drive world food prices even higher in 2008. Earth Policy Institute, January 24, 2008.http://www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2008/update69.htm. Retrieved 28 March 2014.

Coyle, R. G. 1977. Management System Dynamics. Wiley, New York.

Coyle, R.G. 1996. System Dynamics Modelling: a Practical Approach. Chapman & Hall, London.

Crutchfield, S. 2013. U.S. Drought 2012: Farm and food impacts. United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/in-the-news/us-drought-2012-farm-and-food-impacts.aspx. Retrieved 7 Jun 2014.

Djaenudin, D, H. Marwan, H. Subagyo, A. Hidayat. 2003. Technical Guidelines for Land Evaluation for Agricultural Commodities. Soil Research Institute, Soil and Agro-climate Research Center, Agricultural Research Agency, Ministry of Agriculture (in Indonesian).

Dursin, K. 2012. Indonesia: cultivating food security in their own backyards. Global Information Network. New York.

Elshkaki, A. 2013. An analysis of future platinum resources, emissions and waste streams using a system dynamic model of its intentional and non-intentional flows and stocks. Resources Policy, 38: 241–251

FAO. 1976. A framework for land evaluation. FAO Soils Bulletin No. 32. Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome.

FAO. 1983. Guidelines: land evaluation for rainfed agriculture. Soils Bulletin No. 52. Food and Agricultural Organisation, Rome.

Ferretti, V., S. Pomarico. 2013. Ecological land suitability analysis through spatial indicators: an application of the Analytic Network Process technique and Ordered Weighted Average approach. Ecological Indicators, 34: 507– 519.

Ford, A. 1996. Testing snake river explorer. System Dynamics Review. 12(4): 305–329.

Forrester, J. W. 1961. Industrial Dynamics. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.

Forrester, J.W. 1968. Principles of System. Productivity Press, Cambridge.

Guo, H. C., L. Liu, G. H. Huang, G. A. Fuller, R. Zou, Y.Y. Yin. 2001. A system dynamics approach for regional environmental planning and management: a study for the Lake Erhai Basin. Journal of Environmental Management. 61(1): 93–111.

Hardjowigeno, S., Widiatmaka. 2007. Land Evaluation and Land Use Planning. Gadjahmada University Press, Yogyakarta (in Indonesian).

Hartrisari. 2007. Sistem Dinamik: Konsep Sistem dan Permodelan untuk Industri dan Lingkungan. SEAMEO-BIOTROP. Bogor.

Hayati, M., R. Anindita, N. Hanani, D. Koestiono. 2014. Impact of food import tarrif decrease in Indonesia. Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica. 59 (1): 73-87.

Heimgartner, C. 2001. System dynamic modelling of transport and land use: a first model draft. The first Swiss Transport Research Conference.

Li, F.J., S.C. Dong, F. Li. 2012. A system dynamics model for analyzing the eco-agriculture system with policy recommendations. Ecological Modelling, 227: 34al M

Liu, M., D. Li. 2010. An analysis on total factor productivity and influencing factors of soybean in China. Journal of Agricultural Science, 2 (2): 158-163.

Liu, Y., L.Xiaojian, X. Qin, H. Guo, Y.Yu, J. Wang, G. Mao. 2007. An integrated GIS-based analysis system for land-use management of lake areas in urban fringe. Landscape and Urban Planning, 82: 233–246.

Luo, G., C. Yin, X. Chen, W. Xu, L. Lu. 2010. Combining system dynamic model and CLUE-S model to improve land use scenario analyses at regional scale: A case study of Sangong watershed in Xinjiang, China. Ecological Complexity, 7: 198–207

Mashayekhi, A.N. 1990. Rangeland destruction under population growth: the case of Iran. System Dynamics Review, 6(2): 167–193.

Meadows, D. H., D. L. Meadows, J. Randers. 1992. Beyond the limits. Chelsea Green Publishing, Vermont.

Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia. 2013. Regulation of the Minister of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia No. 133/PMK.011/2013 on the amendment regulation of the Minister of Finance No.213/PMK.011/2011 on goods classification system and the imposition of import duty on imported goods.

Mursidah. 2005. The development of national soybean production and the efforts of development in East Kalimantan. EPP Journal, 2 (1): 39-44.

Naylor, R.L., A.J. Liska, M.B. Burke, W.P. Falcon, J.C. Gaskell, S.D. Rozelle, K. G. Cassman. 2008. The ripple effect: biofuels, food security, and the environment. Environment, 49 (9): 32-43.

Pimentel, D., A. Marklein, M.A. Toth, M.N. Karpoff, G.S. Paul, R. McKormack, J. Kiriazis, T. Krueger. 2009. Food versus biofuels: environmental and economic costs. Hum. Ecol., 37:1-12.

Prasetyo, B., P.U. Hadi, N.K. Agustin, C.R. Adawiyah. 2012. Kajian alternative model bantuan benih dan pupuk untuk peningkatan produksi pangan. Laporan Akhir Penelitian TA 2012. Pusat Analisis Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian, Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian, Kementerian Pertanian. http://pse.litbang.deptan.go.id/ind/pdffiles/LHP_2012_BPY.pdf. Retrieved 3 Aug 2014.

Roni. 2008. Impact of soybean import tariff elimination in Indonesia. Thesis. Bogor Agricultural University. 120 pp (in Indonesian).

Rossiter, D.G. 1995. Economic land evaluation: why and how. Soil Use & Management, 11: 132-140.

Russell, S., A.B. Barron, D.Harris. 2012. Dynamic modelling of honey bee (Apis mellifera) colony growth and failure. Ecological Modelling, 265: 158– 169.

Saeed, K. 1994. Development planning and policy design: a system dynamics approach. Brookfield, Avebury

Saysel, A. K., Y. Barlas, O. Yenigun. 2002. Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project: a system dynamics approach. Environmental Management, 64(3): 247–260.

Shen, Q., Q. Chen, B. Tang, S. Yeung, Y. Hu, G. Cheung. 2009. A system dynamics model for the sustainable land use planning and development. Habitat International, 33: 15–25

Simatupang, P., Marwoto, D.K.S. Swastika. 2005. Pengembangan kedelai dan kebijakan penelitian di Indonesia. Lokakakarya Pengembangan Kedelai di Lahan sub Optimal di BALITKABI Malang, 26 Juli 2005 (in Indonesian)

Soil Survey Staff. 2010. Keys to Soil Taxonomy. United States Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service. 7th Edition.

Suminartika, E. 2008. The effects of import tariff on demand and farm productivity of soybean industry in Indonesia. PhD thesis, Universiti Putra Malaysia.

Supadi. 2009. Impact of the sustained soybean import on food security. Jurnal Analisis Kebijakan Pertanian, 7 (1): 87-102.

Suyamto, IN Widiarta. 2013. Kebijakan pengembangan kedelai nasional. Prosiding Simposium dan Pameran Teknologi Aplikasi Isotop dan Radiasi. digilib.batan.go.id/ppin/katalog/file/9789793558257-2010-037.pdf. Retrieved 1 Aug 2014..

Tim Kajian dan Kebijakan Harga dan Subsidi Pangan dan Pertanian. 2014. Analisis efektifitas kebijakan subsidi pupuk dan benih: Studi kasus tanaman padi dan jagung. PKABN, BKF. http://pengantaragribisnis.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/analisis-efektivitas-kebijakan-subsidi-pupuk-dan-benih.pdf. Retrieved 3 Aug 2014.

Turner, B.L., R.D. Rhoades, L.O. Tedeschi, R.D. Hanagriff, K.C. McCuistion, B.H. Dunn. 2013. Analyzing ranch profitability from varying cow sales and heifer replacement rates for beef cow-calf production using system dynamics. Agricultural Systems, 114: 6–14.

Widiatmaka, W. Ambarwulan, K. Munibah. 2013. Landuse change during a decade as determined by landsat imagery of a rice production region and its implication to regional contribution to rice self sufficiency: case study of Karawang Regency, West Java, Indonesia. In: G.H. Pramono, D. Ramdani, B. Barus, R.M. Ariansyah. 2013. Bridging Sustainable Asia. Proceeding of 34th. Asian Conference on Remote Sensing. Bali 20-24 Oct 2013. pp. 834-840.

Wolstenholme, E.F. 1983. Modelling national development program: an exercise in system description and qualitative analysis using system dynamics. Operational Research Society, 34 (12): 1133–1148.

Zarghami, M., S. Akbariyeh. 2012. System dynamics modeling for complex urban water systems: Application to the city of Tabriz, Iran. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 60: 99– 106




DOI: http://doi.org/10.17503/agrivita.v36i3.432

Copyright (c)